Spain leads the world in solar energy percentage

The International Energy Agency Photovoltaic Power System Programme’s latest annual report ‘Snapshot of Global PV Markets’ frames an overall snapshot of the global PV market in 2022 and key trends in the industry.

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What is the IEA TCP PVPS?

The International Energy Agency (IEA), founded in 1974, is an autonomous body within the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The Technology Partnership Program (TCP) was created with the belief that the future of energy security and sustainability begins with global collaboration. The program is comprised of 6,000 experts from government, academia and industry dedicated to promoting joint research and application of specific energy technologies.

The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Program (IEA PVPS) is one of the TCPs within the IEA and was established in 1993. The program’s mission is to “enhance international collaborative efforts that facilitate the role of solar PV as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems.” To achieve this, program participants have conducted a variety of joint research projects in photovoltaic power system applications. The program as a whole is headed by an Executive Committee composed of one delegate from each member country or organization, who designates specific tasks, which may be research projects or areas of activity.

Participating countries in the IEA PVPS are Australia, Austria, Canada, Chile, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Morocco, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey and the United States of America. Also members are the European Commission, Solar Power Europe, Smart Electric Power Alliance, Solar Energy Industries Association, Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore and Enercity SA.

What is IEA PVPS Task 1?

The objective of Task 1 of the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Program is to promote and facilitate the exchange and dissemination of information on the technical, economic, environmental and social aspects of PV power systems. Task 1 activities support the broader objectives of the PVPS: to contribute to the cost reduction of photovoltaic energy applications, increase awareness of the potential and value of photovoltaics.

Executive summary

The global PV base returned to significant growth in 2022, reaching a cumulative capacity of 1,185 GW (≈ 1.2 TW) according to preliminary market data, both despite and due to post-covid price increases and European geopolitical tensions. With 240 GW of new systems installed and commissioned, and nearly a dozen countries with penetration rates above 10%, (over 19% for Spain!), PV has demonstrated that it is a serious, important and long-term contributor to cost-competitive electricity generation and emissions reductions in the power sector.

Major trends include:

– The Chinese market continues to dominate both new and cumulative capacity and added 106 GW1DC or 44% of new capacity to reach a cumulative capacity of 414.5 GW, more than double that of Europe. This strong growth follows that of previous years – 54.9 GW in 2021 and 48.2 GW in 2020, and is balanced between centralized and distributed systems.

– Europe demonstrated continued solid growth with 39 GW installed, led by Spain (8.1 GW), Germany (7.5 GW), Poland (4.9 GW) and the Netherlands (3.9 GW). High electricity market prices have bolstered PV competitiveness and several countries have acted on policies to further accelerate PV in line with EU and national energy sovereignty commitments – while others are enacting policies to reduce injections due to grid congestion.

– The U.S. market contracted to 18.6 GW under the combined influence of commercial problems and grid connection delays, while Brazil installed a high new capacity of 9.9 GW, almost doubling the previous year’s new capacity.

– India again showed strong growth with 18.1 GW, predominantly in centralized systems, and PV penetration close to 10%. Strong volumes from Australia (3.9 GW despite supply chain issues) and Korea rounded out the regional market.

– Japan remained stable at 6.5 GW, the same as in 2021. Nine countries now have penetration rates above 10% with Spain, Greece and Chile above 17%, and although grid congestion has been a problem for some countries.

1. SNAPSHOT OF THE GLOBAL PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY MARKET IN 2022

IEA PVPS has excelled over the years in producing unbiased reports on PV development worldwide, based on information from official government agencies and reliable industry sources. This 11th edition of the “Global PV Markets Snapshot” aims to provide preliminary information on how the PV market developed in 2022. The 28th edition of the full PVPS “Trends in Photovoltaic Applications” report will be published in the fourth quarter of 2023.

1.1 Evolution of annual installations

It appears that 1 185 GW represents the minimum cumulative installed capacity by the end of 2022, and at least 240 GW of PV systems have been commissioned worldwide in the past year. The IEA PVPS2 countries, for which there is a solid level of certainty in the data, accounted for 953 GW (or 80%) of cumulative capacity and 184 GW (77%) of annual installations.

By 2022, at least 23 countries installed more than 1 GW.

Sixteen countries (not including the EU) now have more than 10 GW of total cumulative capacity, and five have more than 40 GW. China alone accounts for 414.5 GW, followed by the European Union (as EU27), which led the rankings until 2015, but now ranks second (209.3 GW), the United States in third place (142 GW), and Japan in fourth place (85 GW).

With continued dynamic growth, China remains the leading regional market in 2022 with more than 45% of new capacity, a market share not seen since 2018; robust growth in Europe and, to a lesser extent, the United States and India account for another 30%. Figure 2 below illustrates the changing dynamics of the global PV market and the influence of the Chinese PV market, but also the rapid pace of growth in India and emerging countries. Japan, which used to be a major market, maintains a steady pace of new projects, but without acceleration in the market as elsewhere.

1.2 Impact of international trade disruptions and the war in Ukraine

After three years, it is still difficult to accurately quantify the impacts of the pandemic. Of the major markets, only India showed a contraction in 2020, and all other major markets showed growth from 2020 to 2022 despite significant supply chain and trade disruptions, with increases in polysilicon, glass, aluminum, steel and freight costs, and thus module and system costs. At the same time, since early 2022, political tensions in Europe and the resulting reduction in gas purchases have led to much higher wholesale and domestic electricity prices, not only in Europe, but also in a variety of other countries, including Australia.

Rising costs, especially in 2022, do not seem to have slowed the growth of PV markets, except in India (where bureaucratic restrictions may account for much of the delays), although in some countries, especially in Europe, highly competitive medium- and large-scale systems were cancelled or postponed because their business models could not withstand cost increases. It is quite possible that stable costs could have led to faster growth rates, although, considering manufacturing capacity, there could still have been price increases in polysilicon, even if new manufacturing plans had been launched earlier.

By mid-2022, transportation and material costs mostly stabilized, and PV markets continued to grow. Overall, it is difficult to distinguish whether this acceleration effect is stronger or weaker than the braking effect of higher PV component prices.

The increased competitiveness of PV in many countries has led to grid parity in a much wider range of segments than even 18 months ago, from household to utility-scale systems, with impacts on policies and financing mechanisms discussed in Section 7.

The resilience of the PV market despite significant economic and logistical disruptions is remarkable and shows the technology’s potential to limit economic downturns and social damage caused by regional or global disruptions. Green recovery plans and improved regulations could propel the PV industry well beyond current installation trends to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement.

1.3 Major markets in 2022

The Chinese market grew again at a remarkable rate and installed 106 GW in 2022 (up from 55 GW in 2021), representing 44% of the global market. With 38.9 GW of annual installations, the European Union ranked second, followed by the United States with an estimated 18.6 GW installed, a market affected by trade disputes and grid connection delays, followed by India with a market increase of 18.1 GW. Brazil ranks fourth with an estimated 9.9 GW, the most dynamic market in Latin America.

To enter the top ten in new capacity in 2022, countries needed to install at least 3 GW of PV systems (up from 1.5 GW in 2018). Korea and France gave way to Poland and the Netherlands despite their reasonable performance. The top ten in total cumulative capacities shows more inertia due to past levels of installations: France dropped out of the top ten in cumulative capacity in 2022 and was replaced by Italy, which is now back in the top ten. There is a significant gap between the top five and the next five; Australia, Spain, Italy, Korea and Brazil have very similar cumulative capacities of between 20 GW and 30 GW, less than half the amount of the fifth country, Germany.

2. MARKET SEGMENTATION

Preliminary data indicate that both the rooftop and utility-scale segments grew in 2022 in absolute terms. The market segments were balanced, with 48% of new capacity in rooftops. The rooftop segment’s share has been growing steadily since 2018 as markets open in new countries and declining costs make it more accessible to residential and commercial investors, with significant volumes (>2.5 GW) and market shares in China, Brazil, Germany, Poland, and Australia.

In both segments, new applications are growing; from BIPV in the rooftop segment to utility-scale floating PV.

Although still marginal but growing, agrivoltaic and BIPV projects are still difficult to quantify, as are VIPV/VAPV3 (vehicle-integrated PV) volumes, although they are expected to develop well in the coming years.

Technological evolutions, such as bifacial PV, will also impact the development of these new market segments.

3. CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY IN THE WORLD

In 2022, cumulative installed capacity worldwide surpassed the symbolic 1 TW mark, reaching approximately 1 185 GW, as shown in Figure 5. The leaders, from China to India and then Germany (67.2 GW), have at least 30 GW more than the next countries. Their positions are unlikely to be challenged in 2023 or 2024, not even doubling or tripling Brazil’s dynamic market in 2022 (9.9 GW) would be enough. Brazil joined the next group of countries with similar, smaller cumulative capacities between 20 GW and 30 GW: Australia, Spain, Italy, Korea and now Brazil.

4. EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL PV INSTALLATIONS

The distribution of regional market shares has remained stable since 2018. Asia Pacific has captured the largest share, with 64% of the total cumulative installed capacity in 2022, driven by China with a strong contribution from India. Japan stably installed 6.5 GW, while both the Korean (3.6 GW) and Australian (3.9 GW) markets contracted slightly: supply chain challenges and investment delays in Australia should be resolved in 2023. Some smaller, more established Asian markets, such as Taiwan and Malaysia, also experienced growth in 2022, while other markets, such as Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines, have seen slow or intermittent growth over the years.

In the European Union, Spain led with 8.1 GW after four stable years between 4 GW and 5 GW per year. Germany followed closely with 7.5 GW after a fourth year of more than 120% increase, then Poland (4.9 GW installed) with a similar growth rate. The Netherlands ranked fourth with 3.9 GW installed. It was followed by France with 2.9 GW and Italy with 2.5 GW. Five other countries installed more than 1 GW: Denmark (1.6 GW), Greece (1.4 GW), Austria and Hungary, both with 1 GW. Non-EU European countries together installed 3.4 GW in 2022, led by Turkey (1.6 GW), Switzerland (850 MW) and the UK (555 MW). Notable growth was observed in Norway (+300% relative increase), Italy (+163% relative increase), Sweden (+96%) and Slovenia (+98% relative increase).

Despite the underperformance of the U.S. market (18.6 GW, down from 27 GW in 2021), the overall Americas market increased driven by strong growth in Brazil (9.9 GW installed in 2022), followed by Chile with approximately 1.8 GW and Mexico with 680 MW. The Canadian market grew by around 449 MW of installed capacity in 2022.

In the Middle East and Africa, Israel installed an additional 1.2 GW, a significant increase compared to the previous year, followed by Qatar (0.8 GW). Africa and the Middle East accounted for around 3% of global solar PV installations in 2022, with rapid growth in off-grid installations and rooftop PV systems without any regulatory regime progressing rapidly in many countries.

5. LIMITS OF REPORTING CONVENTIONS

As the photovoltaic (PV) market grows steadily, the way to report PV installations becomes more complex. The IEA PVPS has decided to count all PV installations, both grid-connected and off-grid, when reporting numbers, and estimate the remaining portion of unreported installations. For countries with historically significant capacity and a good reporting system, a slow but growing gap between shipped/imported capacity and installed capacity can be attributed to several factors, including AC to DC conversion factors, repowering, and decommissioning. The extremely rapid development of microsystems (plug&play systems with only a few modules), while not significant in total volume, is symptomatic of the development of unreported systems that reach the market and are sometimes invisible to distribution system operators and data collection.

Other market developments, such as off-grid applications, are difficult to track even in member countries, and significant growth in third-country installations without robust reporting is also a likely source of underreporting. In light of this, the report here takes into account reported commissioned new capacities and expert estimates, as well as likely unreported volumes installed in one of the above contexts. Estimated shipped capacity data, in inventories, has been incorporated in Figure 3 to improve market visibility.

5.1 Decommissioning, Repowering and Recycling

Data published by the IEA PVPS on annual installed capacity and total cumulative installed capacity are based on official data from reporting countries. Depending on reporting practices, cumulative capacity (the sum of annual installed capacity) may exceed operating capacity as systems are decommissioned. Repowered capacities replace some of the decommissioned capacity, but also generally increase operating capacity, as the repowered capacity is greater than the initial plant capacity due to improvements in the efficiency of the PV modules.

There is no standardized reporting on these issues in the IEA PVPS countries. Several countries already incorporate PV plant decommissioning in their total capacity numbers by reducing the total cumulative number. Other countries report operating capacity for that year and do not include repowered volumes in annual installed capacity or decommissioned volumes in operating capacity. Many countries do not track decommissioning or repowering consistently.

Repowering is still relatively unusual due to the age of older installations, but is expected to increase in the near future. A good example is the serial defects of back-sheets manufactured in the 2009-2011 period, as several hundred MW have been replaced in the last 2 years. Module capacity used to repower systems with defective or underperforming modules will show up in shipped volumes, but not necessarily in annual new installations. Actual decommissioning is expected to be rare, as land use constraints and cheaper in-building PV encourage repowering. Recycling numbers can provide an idea of what is happening with respect to repowering and decommissioning in countries where there are active recycling programs, however, data availability needs to be improved before it can be used more widely.

In the coming years, IEA PVPS will closely follow the dynamic evolution of decommissioning, repowering and recycling, with the expected impact on installed capacity, market projections for repowering and the declining performance of PV systems due to aging.

5.2 Direct current or alternating current numbers?

By convention, the numbers reported refer to the rated power of installed photovoltaic (PV) power systems. These are expressed in W (or Wp). Some countries report the output power of the PV inverter (the device that converts the direct current of the PV systems into alternating current electricity compatible with standard electrical grids) or the grid connection power level. The difference between standard DC power (in Wp) and AC power can vary from as little as 5% (conversion losses, inverter set to DC level) to 60% or more. For example, some grid regulations limit injections to as little as 70% of the peak power of residential PV systems installed in recent years. Most large-scale plants built in 2022 have an AC-DC ratio between 1.1 and 1.6. For some countries, the numbers given in this report have been converted to DC numbers to maintain consistency in the overall report.

In general, the IEA PVPS recommends registering PV systems with both the DC power and the AC value. The DC power allows for a reliable calculation of energy production, while the AC power allows for a better understanding of the theoretical maximum energy production of the PV fleet. More information on recommendations for proper recording of PV plants can be found in the Data Model and Data Acquisition report.

6. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION FROM PV

Photovoltaic power generation is easy to measure for an individual system, but more complex for an entire country. Electricity self-consumed by prosumers is generally not metered. The conversion of installed capacity to electricity is subject to errors: solar radiation may vary according to local climate; weather may differ from year to year. Systems installed in December will have produced only a fraction of their annual electricity production; systems installed on buildings may not be optimally oriented or may be partially shaded during the day.

PV penetration is based on the theoretical electricity production from PV per country, calculated based on cumulative PV capacity at the end of 2022, considering optimal location, orientation and annual weather conditions. Figure 7 shows how PV theoretically contributes to meeting electricity demand in key IEA PVPS countries and others, based on installed capacity at the end of 2022. The numbers are estimates based on total cumulative capacity at the end of the year and may differ from official PV production numbers in some countries. They should be considered indicative, providing a reliable estimate for comparison between countries and do not replace official data.

Nine countries now have penetration rates above 10% (up from 7 in 2021): Spain exceeds 19%, Greece and Chile exceed 17%, and the Netherlands and Australia exceed 15%. High penetration rates are not reserved for small, sunny climates, nor for countries with very low consumption, as demonstrated by both Germany and India in the top group: increasingly large volumes of installed capacity are making a tangible contribution to electricity consumption worldwide. The two largest markets, China (6.5%) and Europe (8.8%), demonstrate this. In total, the contribution of PV accounts for 6.2% of the world’s electricity demand.

7. POLICY AND MARKET TRENDS

7.1 Policy Trends

The combination of market competitiveness, climate action goals and the quest for energy sovereignty has led to changes in policy support for PV in several countries in 2022, often in quite contradictory directions.

Some countries (China, Australia, …) are removing end-user support mechanisms (tenders, feed-in tariffs, direct and fiscal subsidies) as PV has become competitive, while others (Germany, Austria) have stepped up their support (new remuneration bonus for prosumers, increased bidding capacities) to drive further capacity growth and meet climate imperatives. At the same time, many countries have used indirect support mechanisms to address the complexity and costs of permitting, facilitate access to electricity markets or establish grid access policies for prosumers to accelerate PV deployment.

The past year demonstrated that, despite the competitiveness of PV, domestic markets remain policy sensitive, with different segments responding to policy changes as they become effective. This is especially visible in emerging applications, such as agrivoltaics, floating PV or collective self-consumption and energy communities. In particular, two main issues have mobilized policy makers in 2022: grid access policies and support for local manufacturing. Grid access policies have emerged as a limiting factor in a growing number of countries and markets, as congestion and shifting cost burdens slow down projects and worry distribution system operators (DSOs). Support for local manufacturing in the context of PV targets, disrupted supply chains and the high concentration of manufacturing capacity in China has led to the implementation of some reforming support policies around the world.

7.2 Competitive Bidding and Commercial Photovoltaic Power

Tenders continued to be the main driver of large-scale PV project development in 2022, although rising electricity prices led to an increase in projects exploring Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) or commercial PV as a financing mechanism in many countries (Europe, Americas).

Despite this, many countries continued to bid in 2022, although factors such as the pull of electricity costs in the market or poorly anticipated reserve prices led to lower than expected subscription rates in some countries (Germany, France, Spain). Rising material and transportation costs in 2021 and 2022 may have affected the viability of some successful bidders, with projects being delayed (Spain) or with state organizations considering adjusting remuneration methods (France).

Increasing market competitiveness has led to the termination or phasing out of tenders, e.g. Australia, China, while elsewhere, climate commitments or market imperatives have led to new volumes being tendered or increased volumes to be tendered (Germany, Saudi Arabia).

Bidding can be based on cost alone or integrate multiple factors such as land use, carbon footprint or geographic location. As concerns about the concentration of supply chains in China evolve, some governments have sought bidding mechanisms to encourage local content, although trade rules make this a complex task.

Commercial PV (selling directly into electricity markets or through PPAs) is growing steadily as PV project developers and owners take advantage of higher electricity prices to avoid bidding constraints (time, restrictive conditions or insufficient volumes) or as the only alternative when support mechanisms are phased out. Some countries are experimenting with non-monetary support to encourage the development of commercial PPAs, such as guarantee funds, virtual PPA frameworks (Malaysia) or grid access tenders (Spain).

7.3 Prosumer Policies

Prosumers (entities that are both producers and consumers of energy) are becoming more active market drivers around the world as consumer electricity prices rise and solar photovoltaic (PV) panel penetration rates increase, improving understanding and access to prosumer policies.

Generally, prosumers’ excess generation is paid through net metering (traditionally in emerging markets) or net billing in more experienced markets with smart meters or communicating meters. Remuneration rates vary and can be low to discourage grid injections or, conversely, benefit from feed-in tariffs or market premiums. These remuneration rates can be associated with a number of different constraints, from capacity limits to mandatory building integration or carbon footprinting.

Collective self-consumption, where one or more solar PV producers (including utility-scale plants) supply one or more consumers in the same building or within a small geographic perimeter with reduced use of the public grid, continues to grow, although the wide range of mechanisms used can make comparison between countries difficult. The use of self-consumption in collective buildings is growing in many EU countries, while other models, such as distributed (or virtual) self-consumption, are becoming more common. These models have in common that they allow a higher rate of self-consumption than if only one consumer were associated, and are increasingly seen as a market substitute, allowing small-scale generators to sell directly to consumers without having to become commercial operators, an often complex process.

In the “Clean Energy for All Europeans” package, the European Union introduced the concept of Renewable Energy Communities (RECs) and Citizen Energy Communities (CECs). RECs should allow citizens to sell their renewable energy production to their neighbors, while some crucial components are the definition of the perimeter and charging for grid use. These key components are defined in the national implementation of the Member States. This concept of energy communities is likely to expand the existing market segments for solar PV panels and enable cost reductions for consumers who cannot invest in a solar installation on their own.

7.4 Network Access Policies

With increasing penetration rates of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels in more and more countries, and some small regions reaching 100% renewables for several hours or days, transmission and distribution system operators must anticipate and more actively manage solar PV. New policies have been proposed or implemented to manage grid access and cost sharing, from bidding for capacity (Spain) to interrupting solar exports in case of saturation (Australia) or taxing exports to the grid (California, Belgium).

How the cost burden of managing, reinforcing and renewing the grid infrastructure is shared has become one of the most sensitive issues. Behind-the-meter generation can reduce revenues collected from consumption, while midday exports can congest networks and affect network balance. As penetration rates increase, new governance models compatible with market and climate policy-driven deployment targets will need to be established to ensure a smooth implementation of solar PV.

7.5 Local Manufacturing Policies

The various disruptions of 2021 and 2022 (COVID, geopolitical tensions around the world, and pollution episodes in China) have highlighted the fragility of the solar PV value chain at a time when governments are looking to increase PV generation. Supporting local manufacturing at various stages of the PV value chain has become important in different regions, prompting numerous governments to support local manufacturing through policies, subsidies, and regulations; prominent examples include the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). While trade conflicts have decreased in intensity in recent years, the willingness to support local production has increased with initiatives in Europe, the United States, India, Morocco or Saudi Arabia. This reflects the growing perception of the potential importance of solar PV in the coming years and the willingness to secure strategic production in some countries.

This trend is increasing globally, often without a clear understanding of the industry dynamics and complexities of PV manufacturing, which will lead to fewer actual projects than some governments would like to see. Materials supply for the PV manufacturing industry is growing as a percentage of total materials consumption, and caution should be taken when analyzing the impact that growth in PV manufacturing could have on global supply chains and other industries.

8. PHOTOVOLTAIC SOLAR ENERGY IN THE OVERALL ENERGY TRANSITION

8.1 PV and Other Renewable Energy Developments

Solar PV plays an important role in the energy transition, accounting for two-thirds of all new renewable electricity technologies in 2022, thanks to its consistent costs, technical performance and accessibility, and generally faster permitting procedures than wind or hydro. As installed volumes increase, so does workforce competence and investor confidence, allowing solar to be adopted as a safe and mature technology investment. With the perspective of the last three years, it is clear that solar is now a mainstream energy source.

In 2022, solar PV generated approximately 50% of total renewable electricity production from new production assets, despite accounting for two-thirds of new capacity. The difference between capacity and generation is due to the different capacity factors of renewable technologies. While biomass facilities can produce virtually around the clock and throughout the year, the output of wind and photovoltaic facilities is highly dependent on available resources, which can vary locally.

8.2 Impact of PV Development on CO2 Emissions

Global energy-related CO2eq emissions increased to 36 800 Mt in 2022, only 0.9% more than in 2021, much less than expected considering the switch from gas to coal in some countries. Total emissions from the power and heat sector reached an all-time high of 14 600 Mt CO2eq in 2022. Solar PV played a major role in reducing CO2 emissions in electricity in 2022, avoiding approximately 1 399 Mt of annual CO2 emissions, an increase of 30% over 2021. This is calculated as the emissions that would have been generated from the same amount of electricity produced by different grid mixes in all countries and taking into account the life-cycle emissions of PV systems.

This amount of avoided CO2 emissions represents about 10% of the total emissions of the electricity and heat sector (+3% since 2021) and 4% of all energy emissions.

8.3 PV Fostering the Development of a Cleaner Energy System

Solar PV provides direct and immediate carbon emission savings as it replaces or displaces fossil fuel generation. Anticipating large amounts of cost-competitive green electricity from solar PV in the near future, increasing investments are being made in research, pre-industry and commercial investments to harness future electricity production for hydrogen or other molecules, such as ammonia, methanol, toluene or the like, considered by many as technologies with the potential to address climate change.

The electrification of transportation is accelerating in many countries, and while the relationship between solar PV development and electric vehicles (EVs) is not yet fully understood, the growth of self-consumption policies and grid congestion limiting injections are factors that need to be taken into account. Charging EVs during peak loads involves rethinking power generation, grid management and smart metering, and concepts such as virtual self-consumption could quickly provide a framework for EVs as mobile storage for excess solar PV generation. With 10.5 million EVs sold in 2022 (+60% over 2021), the EV sales growth curve crossed that of solar PV this year, demonstrating accelerated development beyond that of solar PV.